Who's Hot and Who's Not: Preseason Edition

As the NFL preseason comes to a conclusion tonight, I will present the Cage's installment of Who's Hot and Who's Not: Preseason Edition.

Who's Hot:

Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay's QB finished the fake season with 465 yds, 6 TDs, and nearly a 150 QB rating. Those numbers should worry the Bears all week in anticipation of their Week 1 matchup.

Adrian Peterson - The consensus number 1 pick in most leagues this August tore it up Week 3 vs. the Texans D on Monday Night Football. On just 11 carries, he grinded out 117 yds, including a 75 yd TD run on the Vikes first play from scrimmage.

Hakeem Nicks - The rookie WR for the Giants has 3 catches of over 50 yds this preseason, including 2 for TDs. It looks like Nicks might emerge as the playmaker the Giants drafted him to be.

Who's Not:

Browns QBs - Only 1 TD and 400 yds passing between the two of them, I would advise steering clear of either Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn. Neither seems to want to win the starting job. Cleveland is a mess right now.

Matt Cassel - struggled his first 2 games out, then preceded to get injured, leaving major doubts surrounding Cassel's upcoming season. With the inexperienced offensive line and lack of playmakers on offense, look for Cassel to struggle this year.

Maurice Jones-Drew - In limited carries this preseason, MJD never could get into a groove running the ball. To make matters worse, he busted his knee in the Jags last fake game, throwing his Week 1 status into jeopardy, and torturing fantasy owners.

Coming Soon: Week 1 Start em/Sit em picks and Sleeper Picks

Rice is for Real

As football fans everywhere continue to draft their respective teams for the next couple of weeks, I would like to offer a mid-draft selection that could really bolster owners' teams this year. Try Ray Rice, running back for the Baltimore Ravens. He busted on to the college scene in his 1st year, and never looked back. By the end of his college career, he had shattered school records and become a Heisman contender. Drafted in the 2nd round two years ago, his rookie campaign was filled with ups and downs. He finished with over 450 yds rushing and 250 recieving. The Ravens have high aspirtations for Rice, naming him their starter for this upcoming season. Consider this: the Ravens already run the ball over 35+ times a game, and they have no viable recieving threat outside of Derrick Mason. Ray Rice's average pick in ESPN leagues so far is 66th overall, and 27th among RBs. That generally equates to anywhere from the 6th to 9th round. Ray Rice didn't put up sensational numbers last year, but remember that he was shelved with a shin injury after week 14, and he shared carries with two other viable fantasy options (including Willis McGahee and Leron McClain, who I also think could be a steal). I don't think Rice will be putting up 100 yds/game averages all season, but I do think he can be counted on for a modest but consistent 8 points per week this season, considering his versatility as both a runner and reciever between the 20s. It should be mentioned that McClain will steal some valuable carries on the goaline (which is why I am starting him week 1 vs. the Chiefs), but that shouldn't be enough to scare you off. Both myself and Matt (co-writer) were in attendance at the Panthers vs. Ravens week 3 preseason contest, so we were able to get a first-hand look at some potential fantasy contributers from both teams. I think we agreed that we both came away very impressed from what we saw from Rice: a modest 10 carries for only 32 yds, but an impressive 8 catches for over 60 yds. Rice has had a solid preseason, and I expect him to carry that over into September and beyond. So, don't leave Ray Rice out of the sleeper discussion this season, and be sure to target him while drafting this season.

On the WR-WR Draft Strategy

It has come to my attention that one of ESPN's esteemed writers has come up with a WR-WR draft strategy, in which you pick a WR in the first as well as second round. This is fantasy genius and abides by simple statistics to provide a good draft option. It goes off simple statistics that say that the difference in points between Top WRs and Average WRs is greater than the difference between Top RBs and Average RBs therefore it is more efficient to pick WRs first.

Rookie QBs: Can they be trusted?

Rookies coming into the NFL can be tough to project, but rookie QBs are even tougher. So, for fantasy owners this fall, the question that begs answering: are there any rookie QBs out there worth the pickup? Before we look at this year's crop, I'll quickly take a look back at last year's bunch.



Matt Ryan, the 3rd overall pick by the Falcons last year, busted onto the fantasy scene by throwing a touchdown pass on his first NFL play. He ended up finishing the year with 3400 yds and 17 TDs, leading the Falcons to the wild card berth in the playoffs. He was named Rookie of the Year, and ended up being a top 15 fantasy QB in ESPN leagues. Joe Flacco, the Ravens first round pick, threw for nearly 3000 yds and 14 TDs in a run first offense, led the Ravens to an AFC Championship game berth, and finished at a respectable 18th place among QBs in ESPN leagues. One of the Chiefs' final picks in last year's draft, QB Tyler Thigpen made for a hot waiver-wire pickup in leagues late last year. In 11 starts, Thigpen scored double digit points in 9 of those games, and finished up with 2600 yds and 18 TDs. He ranked a shocking 11th at the end of the year in ESPN leagues.

Despite the successes of last year's bunch, I have many concerns for this year's allotment of fantasy QBs. I will analyze 3 rookie QBs from this year's draft, starting with the number 1 overall pick, Lions QB Matt Stafford. I think he projects well as a QB in the NFL, but not this year. I don't think its a good idea to throw Stafford out on the field on opening day, considering the Lions terrible O-line, lack of overall talent, and a proven veteran in front of him in Daunte Culpepper. In a few years, Stafford has potential to be a solid fantasy QB, but I just don't see it in his rookie year. Next, I'll break down the 5th overall pick, Jets QB Mark Sanchez. Most experts say another year at USC would have done him good, and I tend to agree. He has good intangibles and size for a solid NFL QB, but he just dosen't have the experience yet (he was just a one year starter at USC) to become a fantasy threat. Although he will start for the Jets this fall, and he will have his moments, I would not take a chance on Sanchez quite yet. Lastly, I will look at the 17th pick from this past draft, Bucs QB Josh Freeman. He has excellent size for an NFL QB and an excellent knowledge of the game as a 3 year starter at Kansas State. In my opinion, he has a chance to become one of the great steals of fantasy football this year, if he can win the starting job. I'm not saying you should go pick him up off waivers and insert him in your lineup this early on, but he could become a factor later this season. With a strong running game to help balance the offense, a top 10 fantasy WR in Antonio Bryant, and a proven O-line, Freeman could provide some quality depth and become a nice plug-in option as a bye week QB later on in the season.

Injury Woes

With 2 weeks of preseason football all but in the books,( MNF, Jets vs. Ravens, ESPN) fans everywhere are eager to see their team's starters take it to the field for more than a few snaps. Dubbed the "dress rehearsal" week of the preseason, teams generally let their starters battle it out for 3 quarters in week 3 before inserting the second teamers. Though this is an exciting preseason week for football fans, this week is nothing short of horrifying for fantasy owners. The last thing owners want to see is their running backs getting double-digit carries or quarterbacks throwing 20 plus times in a meaningless preseason game. This is pure torture for owners.

There have been many injuries that occur to key players that have ultimately ended owner's seasons before they have even started. Remember back to the 03 campaign, when Falcons QB Michael Vick fractured his fibula against the Ravens, and didn't return until December. Or when former Jets and current Dolphins QB Chad Pennington broke his hand and missed six weeks of real football. Take former Bears QB Rex Grossman, who was a reliable fantasy option in 05, broke his ankle and didn't return until December. These are just a few guys who have ruined fantasy owner's seasons due to injury in the preseason. Owners around the nation will be wide awake at night this upcoming week worrying about their players fate this season, including me.

Hassel-back

After Matt Hasselback has been shuffled down the quarterback rankings due to multiple misfortunes such as injuries it is now his time to shine. He looked like a well oiled machine when he came out in week 2 vs Denver and passed for 171 yards and 2 touchdowns. I know he's not exactly under the radar but he'll be a great pick/trade for his value right now.

They Boy is back in town

In other news Brett Favre is back again(what a surprise), and he has allot of people excited in Minnesota. This year though Favre is a no go. Unless your desperate to try him don't go down that road....you saw his not so good numbers last year and now they'll continue to get worse.

Homee Watch

The Panthers kick off their preseason tonight and we are currently on homee watch. Not just any homee though, Jake Delhome. The question is, does he have anything left. I think he does and could be a potential great late round pick for your fantasy teams. I think there is something to that new contract he signed and he'll have a great season.

Defense/Special Teams Sleepers

Like many people i am in a ESPN fantasy league witch includes a "defence/special teams" spot. I believe that this is one of the most underrated aspects of fantasy today even though allot of times it produces a good amount of points. That is why i am giving you two team who in my opinion are underrated. The Chargers and the Bears have had top defences in past years and now i find them at 50 and 30 percent ownership in the ESPN fantasy leagues. That's ridiculous considering the great players found of both of this defensive rosters(does Sean Merriman and Brian Urlaucher ring a bell?)For now i leave you with this....consider your options for defences and don't come into the draft not knowing who you want to pick like a lot of people do.

Vick Back Already!!!

Time goes by fast doesn't it...it seems like just yesterday when he was having fun beating dogs. I'm not here to criticize him though only to say that i don't think he's going to be worth that much this year. He's stuck behind Donavan McNabb one of the leagues premiere Quarterbacks and I would be shocked if he ever started a game. Philly will find some way to make use of Vick, but you know that whatever trickery they try with him isn't going to make him a fantasy star. Conclusion Vick will get points this year, though not enough to make a difference in fantasy.

Football Cage's "Deals" and "Not for Real"

Deals:

+Terrel Owens(He's to good to be done yet)

+Roddy White(You've got to believe this perennial great will get even better as Matt Ryan does)

+Calvin Johnson(With the Lions finally pulling back together at QB expect allot more from Calvin)

+Jay Cutler(Jay is low in draft rankings but still has good weapons now that he has moved to Chicago-Especially Devin Hester)

+Ryan Grant(Ranked A Little Far back this year...I'm going with my gut instinct on this one

Not For Real:

+Mark Sanchez(I really hav overall doubts about this man only pick him in a deep leauge)

+Darren Sproles(He's not going to have a horrible season but lets be real everything ended up lineing up just right for him to have sucess)

+Eli Manning(Lets be honest he's a decent quarter back but he's not worth an early pick if thats what your planning on doing)

+Chad Pennington(I expect him to do better than some people do but don have him as your only quarterback)

+Eddie Royal(Kyle Orton is no Jay Cutler and Eddie Royal is no Randy Moss, i wouldnt take one glance at Royal this year)