Rookies coming into the NFL can be tough to project, but rookie QBs are even tougher. So, for fantasy owners this fall, the question that begs answering: are there any rookie QBs out there worth the pickup? Before we look at this year's crop, I'll quickly take a look back at last year's bunch.
Matt Ryan, the 3rd overall pick by the Falcons last year, busted onto the fantasy scene by throwing a touchdown pass on his first NFL play. He ended up finishing the year with 3400 yds and 17 TDs, leading the Falcons to the wild card berth in the playoffs. He was named Rookie of the Year, and ended up being a top 15 fantasy QB in ESPN leagues. Joe Flacco, the Ravens first round pick, threw for nearly 3000 yds and 14 TDs in a run first offense, led the Ravens to an AFC Championship game berth, and finished at a respectable 18th place among QBs in ESPN leagues. One of the Chiefs' final picks in last year's draft, QB Tyler Thigpen made for a hot waiver-wire pickup in leagues late last year. In 11 starts, Thigpen scored double digit points in 9 of those games, and finished up with 2600 yds and 18 TDs. He ranked a shocking 11th at the end of the year in ESPN leagues.
Despite the successes of last year's bunch, I have many concerns for this year's allotment of fantasy QBs. I will analyze 3 rookie QBs from this year's draft, starting with the number 1 overall pick, Lions QB Matt Stafford. I think he projects well as a QB in the NFL, but not this year. I don't think its a good idea to throw Stafford out on the field on opening day, considering the Lions terrible O-line, lack of overall talent, and a proven veteran in front of him in Daunte Culpepper. In a few years, Stafford has potential to be a solid fantasy QB, but I just don't see it in his rookie year. Next, I'll break down the 5th overall pick, Jets QB Mark Sanchez. Most experts say another year at USC would have done him good, and I tend to agree. He has good intangibles and size for a solid NFL QB, but he just dosen't have the experience yet (he was just a one year starter at USC) to become a fantasy threat. Although he will start for the Jets this fall, and he will have his moments, I would not take a chance on Sanchez quite yet. Lastly, I will look at the 17th pick from this past draft, Bucs QB Josh Freeman. He has excellent size for an NFL QB and an excellent knowledge of the game as a 3 year starter at Kansas State. In my opinion, he has a chance to become one of the great steals of fantasy football this year, if he can win the starting job. I'm not saying you should go pick him up off waivers and insert him in your lineup this early on, but he could become a factor later this season. With a strong running game to help balance the offense, a top 10 fantasy WR in Antonio Bryant, and a proven O-line, Freeman could provide some quality depth and become a nice plug-in option as a bye week QB later on in the season.
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Update: The Bucs have named their starting QB, and its not Josh Freeman. Journeyman Byron Leftwich will start opening day against the Cowboys. Don't expect him to last long as the starter though, being that Leftwich simply isn't that good, and the fact that they drafted Freeman in the 1st round.
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